Fantasy Golf tips – using the betting exchanges

Betfair Exchange

When picking your Daily Fantasy Golf team, there are a number of factors that will influence your picks.  Reviewing course form, recent results, cuts made statistics and other data can all help in identifying sleeper players with a high scoring potential that others may miss.  One of our key Fantasy Golf tips is that a very effective way of identifying real value picks is by using the betting exchange markets and comparing the relative odds of a player winning the tournament to their perceived value within the Fantasy game you are playing.

The technique listed below may not perfect but it can be used for identifying value picks in DraftKings UK, Fanaments and PlayON Fantasy Golf contests.  You may develop your own methods for identifying the top value picks but this article highlights how betting exchanges can be used to spot potential value players.

Fantasy Golf tips – What are betting exchanges?

Betting exchanges are market places where bets can be placed or taken by individuals.  The example below will reference Betfair.com which is the biggest betting exchange in the world and due to its size is considered the most efficient marketplace.

Fantasy Golf tips – Why should I trust the betting exchanges odds?

The reason the Betfair odds are expected to be the most accurate representation of the outcome of a Golf tournament, is because this exchange marketplace is formed using all the information and data available prior to a tournament starting.  The price attached to each Golfer winning the tournament is reflective of all the information.

Therefore if we accept that all the information in the public domain has formed the most accurate representation of what will happen in the tournament, we can look at the values that the Fantasy Golf contest compilers have given to each player and spot players that the Daily Fantasy Sports Sites have underrated.

27/10/16 – HSBC World Golf Championships.

The example we will use to display how to utilise Betfair to identify value players is the PlayON Fantasy Golf contest based on the HSBC World Golf Championships that takes place between 27-31 October 2016.

To demonstrate the power of using the Betfair exchange market to find value picks in this PlayON Fantasy Golf contest, we will use a simple ranking system to show how the market ranking of a player can differ significantly from the ranking of a player based on PlayON Fantasy Golf values.

To calculate this first we will take the Betfair market and rank players according to the price they are available to bet at.  So in the example below Rory McIlroy would be ranked 1 as he is the shortest odds to win the tournament.  If 2 players have the same odds then they are ranked jointly.  In the example below Paul Casey and Adam Scott both have identical market odds to win the tournament.  As such we will give them both a joint rank of 5th which means the next ranked player is Justin Thomas who is ranked 7th.

Fantasy Golf tips

The next stage is to go through the same process and rank each player according to their PlayON Fantasy Golf Value.  This process can be repeated for DraftKings UK Fantasy Golf, or Fanaments Daily Fantasy Golf UK Contests.  Once you have a rank for both the betting exchange and the Fantasy values, then with some formatting you can compare the two.  The screenshot of the spreadsheet below shows the top ten players as ranked by PlayON Fantasy Golf for the WGC HSBC.

Fantasy Golf Tips - Player Values

Once all players have been ranked, a simple comparison of the two rankings can help identify any players who the betting exchange would consider are overvalued or undervalued by the Fantasy Sports price compilers. The player ranking differential simply subtracts the Betfair Player ranking from the PlayON Value ranking.  A player with a negative value is ranked higher on the PlayON Fantasy Golf ranking than they are in the betting exchange market, and vice versa.

This calculation can be done in a spreadsheet and in the case of the WGC HSBC, we have identified certain players as being undervalued and worth extra consideration in your line-up at PlayON Fantasy Golf, or being overvalued and perhaps worth avoiding.

Overvalued players in PlayON Fantasy Sports rankings versus Betting exchange for 27/10/16 WGC HSBC Golf:

Fantasy Golf Tips - Overvalued players

Undervalued players in PlayON Fantasy Sports rankings versus Betting exchange for 27/10/16 WGC HSBC Golf:

Fantasy Golf Tips - Undervalued players

So in the example above, we are suggesting that Martin Kaymer has been significantly undervalued in the PlayON Fantasy Golf pricing when compared to his betting exchange odds to win the WGC Golf, and as such would be a player that we may strongly consider in our line-ups.

It should also be considered that other factors apart from a player’s propensity to win a tournament are important when considering your Daily Fantasy Golf picks.  A player who is extremely consistent and likely to play all four days may be a more attractive pick than an erratic player who has the ability to win but misses multiple cuts.

Another consideration should be the type of contest you are entering when selecting value players.  When entering a big Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) contest, ideally you want some sleeper picks that the majority of opponents won’t have.  If a lot of participants are able to identify the same ‘value’ players, then your edge against the field decreases.  This is why it is always useful to check the picked/ownership statistics for each player.

The techniques described in this article should help highlight that the betting exchanges can be used as a valuable tool in assisting with picking your Daily Fantasy Golf team at PlayON, Draft Kings UK, or Fanaments.

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